Strong Front Update - Currently Coming Ashore! (Recording From Earlier Livestream) 11-07

0:00 Benjamin Jükovich here with Washington Weather Chasers. Got a really our first decent storm of autumn coming in now. And as you can see, this thing is just a beast offshore. It's actually being analyzed with a minimum uh surface pressure of 958 millibars back here. It's kind of a doublebarreled low. There's like one area of low pressure here and another back here. But you can see this spiral here. thing is just a beefcake back in there. I'm gonna zoom in just a little bit more on that so you guys can see that detail of that thing spinning. And also I have got the radar on as well. You can see that the coast is beginning to get some precipitation there. But you can start to see the beginning of the cold front coming into

0:46 view out there. And this thing is going to pack a bit of a punch as it comes in. This is looking at Weatherfront. By the way, Weatherfront's a great weather app if any of you guys want to check it out. And this is just looking at a loop of the HR model bringing the cold front in. Kind of demonstrates how it's going to go from almost nothing to well something for sure. And we're going to talk about some of the details here in just a minute. So, as this thing comes ashore up there by Forks and La Push, I mean, it's bringing some big time gusts in here. I'm going to move this over so I

1:33 can put this little indicator on to show you guys um wind gusts on the map as I'm driving this around. So, over the open waters, there are wind gusts up in excess of 60 miles hour as this thing is coming ashore. So as it comes ashore there by La Push, we're talking wind gusts up over 65 miles per hour possibly coming right up in the to La Push there. A little bit lower there by Forks. And then as the cold front gets closer down there by um Ocean Shores and Westport and whatnot, going to be similar wind gust. I wouldn't be surprised if those areas get at least a 60 mile hour wind gust. And then as this thing moves inland, it's gonna pick up

2:20 especially in the Seattle area closer to what is that 900 p.m. or so. Uh possibly a gust of around 40 to 47 miles per hour. Not looking like a major blow inland, but it's still going to be noticeable because this thing is going to have a pretty pronounced uh line on radar probably. And as this line comes through, there's probably briefly going to be some strong winds that get pushed down from a loft towards the surface. I'm going to put this on the RRFS. It picks up that line even better. Look at that thing just rip through later. And then there's going to be some decently strong winds that'll come in

3:07 behind this as well. There are multiple alerts up for Washington State right now. Um, high wind warnings on the coast all the way down to Long Beach and also they extend on the Oregon coast, but I've got this set to Washington alerts right now. And wind advisories up for a good portion of western Washington, but not all. And for the wind advisory, we're calling for gusts of 45 to 50 miles per hour expected for the island county, lowlands of western Scadget and northwestern Snomish counties, lowlands of western Wakom County, Port Townsen area, San Juan County, city of Seattle, downtown Everett, Mary'sville, east side, lowlands of Pierce and southern

3:52 King counties and shoreline and Lynwood and South Everett area And looking at the wind gust here on this is looking at the 18Z Europe uh HR run and it's gone down maybe just a hair since this but you can just see this thing just rip onto the shore again. I mean just pretty impressive stuff really. Something else. There's going to be some huge waves out there on the coast tomorrow. If any of you guys are wave watchers, tomorrow is going to be an absolutely fantastic day of wave watching. And we're going to talk about that in a bit more detail here in just a minute. Um, before I go any further, I'm

4:38 actually going to push record on this real fast, too, and start talking about it in a bit more detail here. So, again, if you're just hopping in, this is currently the satellite imagery of the storm heading towards our area. And we have a pretty decent cold front that's going to be ripping towards Washington state. It's going to move across this evening into tonight. Got high wind warnings for the coast, wind advisories up for the interior. We're going to go into all those details here in just a moment starting now. So, this uh low pressure system has actually been analyzed down to 958 millibars. This is looking at the 18Z GFS that is working with some of that analyzed data. And you can see this uh lobe. It's kind of like

5:24 a double-barreled low a little bit, but it consolidates and it actually kind of slingshots that lobe around. Kind of a Fujiwara effect. And over there on Vancouver Island, it's going to get the brunt of that. But you can see right here, this little leg is the cold front that's going to be moving into Washington State. And again, it's going to send this pretty strong cold front through. There's a possibility with thunderstorms in this as it goes through. And this is looking at the 18Z HER, I do believe. Yes, the 18Z HER for what might be possible. And you can see out there on the coast. Going to zoom in just a little bit towards that. It had gusts [clears throat] of 56 Ocean Park, 56 Ocean Shores. And

6:12 this may actually, let's see, I want to make sure the time frame on this is what I want. And there's a possibility that some of these gusts could be even stronger as it comes in. And the scale is up here. Yeah, you see some pink out there. That's wind gusts up in the excess of 60 m hour. Uh so and then as we get towards places like Tacoma, Olympia Centriia Seattle, wind gusts in the low 40s to mid 40s will be prevalent. Up there by Everett may get a 50 mph gust, Bellingham, 48. It's actually going to be less windy most likely for Port Angeles. And it'll be breezy out there in like Whby Island and whatnot, especially the south part of the island. But up there by Oak Harbor, it's not

6:58 going to be as windy as tomorrow most likely gonna be quite windy for Vancouver Island, of course. And also quite gusty down there in southwest Washington as well. Not expecting this to be a major windstorm for um western Washington by any means. It's going to be a decent blow for the coast, but in the inland locations, this is not the big one, but it's still a decent storm. It's going to it's going to go from zero to uh well, not quite 100, if you know what I mean, but it's going to go from zero to 100, metaphorically speaking uh later this evening. And I might even do a bit of a live stream later as well. This is looking at the RRFS peak winds for this. And look at this. It has 65 down there

7:44 by Ocean Shores. and 60 to yeah about 60 mph for the whole entire Long Beach Peninsula down there in northwest Oregon 65 up there by La Push gusting up towards 65 milesPH Forks 58 NAB 56 and again there's a bit of a little bit of a wind uh sheltering going on there in Port Angeles and Squim but up there in Hurricane Ridge it'll be gusting up towards 70 miles per hour and this run of the RRFS has gusts again up and down the I5 quarter of 40 to 45 miles per hour for the most part. Maybe a little bit higher there in Bellingham. And yeah, you can just watch this thing send across. And as the cold front comes

8:30 through, there's also going to be some breezy winds on the back side of it as well and the possibility of some residual thunderstorms. Looking at this run right here, you can see there's going to be a bit of a shower regime behind it and any of those could have some thunderstorm activity. Now, looking at um going to see what I'm want to look at here next. This is just looking at the MSLP 10 meter wind. And you can see the sustained winds that are going to be coming ashore later are going to be in the realm of about 45 mph gusting up towards 60. And inland locations, it's going to be gusting less. Going to zoom in a little bit closer to the Washington map here. [snorts] Oh, maybe sustained

9:16 15 20 miles per hour, but more over the water, the put sound, especially there by the Admiral Inlet and whatnot. South would be Island be sustained around 30 miles per hour and also up there to the west of Birch Bay sustained around 31 miles per hour. precipitation amounts. There's going to be some decent precipitation out of this for the Olympic Mountains and the Cascade Mountains, but it's going to be anywhere from oh just under a quarter of an inch to up towards a half of an inch up and down the I5 corridor and more rain comes towards the end of the week. Eastern Washington, lesser amounts. Now for the wave watching part, this is the fun part. Um there's going to be some massive waves and with that little

10:05 uh secondary uh kind of double barrel uh low that's coming around the southern uh southwest side of that low. There are some max wave heights this uh evening. They're going to be up towards 70 feet out there in the open water. I mean that's just incredible uh wave heights. But then as we head towards tomorrow, look at you see that swell comes right towards the Washington coast, especially the northwest Washington coast. Gonna zoom in a little bit closer to the coast view here. And you can see just offshore, I mean, those are 57 foot max heights going up into Vancouver Island there. But the Washington coast, there could be the occasional 40ft wave out there tomorrow. The significant wave

10:51 height that's the average of the highest onethird of waves um is going to be around 21 feet. So there's going to be quite a few 20footers out there and there will be quite a few breakers over 20 feet on the Washington coast and then every now and then there could be a bigger one. Okay, it would be a a breaker bigger than 26 ft. And this swell direction is going to be coming primarily out of the southwest towards and west. And that's going to be a pretty big show for much of the Washington coast. I mean out there by Westport, the viewing platform tomorrow afternoon is going to be off the hook. There's also a Kelvin wave that's beginning to creep up the Washington

11:36 coast that's warmer than normal water temperatures. And when you have a warmer water, the water expands and actually raises the water height. So the high tides out there at Westport for example have been about.7 feet higher than predictions. So the high tide tomorrow at Westport with that 7 ft in addition to the predicted high tide is actually going to be close to a king tide height. Plus we have the low pressure nearby and we have low pressure um that also raises sea levels a little bit. So, don't wait until the king tides. Like, if you want to see big waves and high tide, tomorrow is a day to do it. Um, and the swell period is also going to be playing a factor. In the morning, the swell period

12:22 is going to be about 14 seconds. What that means is the the period between waves and swells is 14 seconds. The longer the swell period, the more energy the wave has. But then as we get towards the afternoon, the swell period increases to 16 seconds. And so I mean you basically have 16 seconds between the mountains of water coming in if that makes sense. And so think about a mound of water [laughter] 20 ft high 16 seconds apart. That would mean that the mound is wider and would be able to run further up the beach as it breaks. So, tomorrow is going to be fantastic wave watching and be really careful out there if you do go.