Is Boeing and Airbus' Dominance OVER?!

0:00 imagine a new Ultra Modern Sleek airliner with around 160 to 240 seats a perfect competitive for the boing 737 or the abas 320 families in other words now can you imagine that aircraft with Embraer written on it and if you can't why do you think that is in this video I will cover embra chances of taking on Airbus and boing and I will also cover their willingness to do so stay tuned [Music] on the 20th of November last year Kelly ortberg boing CEO held an internal All Hands webcast to outline the company's coming strategy this obviously also

0:46 included how he plans to steer boing through its many problems which I've already outlined in many of my recent videos now there are many takeaways from that presentation but the one that is relevant to us today involved Boeing's current thinking regarding a new airliner something that would finally replace the 737 and plug the Gap left behind by the retired 757 and it turned out that ortberg's news on that front were not good he did assure his listeners that the company wants to design and build this new airplane but he also explain that in terms of the market and the technology available today now is probably not the right time for it and that's actually

1:32 not that surprising given that Boeing still has not one but two 737 Max variants uncertified and on top of that a pretty big backlog of Max planes in general to deliver I've also earlier explained how boing might want to wait for projects like the CFM rice and possibly even for their joint x66 project with NASA also known as the transonic trust braced Wing demonstrator before they do anything else but more importantly ortberg also added that boing itself wasn't ready to launch a new aircraft right now saying that we're not in a financial position to do that again that's not that surprising Boeing will need time to stabilize and prove to themselves their customers and The

2:18 Regulators that they actually can devote resources to an all new aircraft before they do so and this delay in creating something new is starting to become a real headache for Airlines and lessers out there who really need newer and more efficient Jets I've also previously explained how Airbus is right now increasing their production but that demand remains so high that they're backlog for new aircraft orders especially for the Airbus A320 Neo family now stretches well into the mid 2030s all this means that there should be plenty of room in the market for a third player here and that was actually why I recently looked at China and how they have been trying to become just that but like I explained there China

3:06 currently faces many of the same constraints as the existing players do plus some unique ones including geopolitics which I'll get back later to but what about them Brer then they are already an established player in the industry so can they make an airliner the size of Boeing 737 or the Airbus A320 and maybe plug that demand hole well for many of you watching this particularly if you're in the United States the most likely Embraer variant that you might encounter as a passenger is the e175 or even in previous years maybe the ERG 135 or 145 models with their characteristics tail mounted engines Embraer indeed made their name

3:51 as a regional player starting with even smaller aircraft turbo props like the 110 banti and especially the 120 Brazilia which became an international success with over 350 of them entering service worldwide now if you look at nose and cockpit section of the Embraer 120 in particular you may see how the even newer Embraer ERG family retained the same construction and profile and these Jets solidified in breer's image as a regional aircraft manufacturer only competing with the likes of Bombardier and perhaps ATR for routs where turbo props were still in use now all this was some time ago but Embraer has continued the success with the EET family and the e175 has been

4:38 replacing not only Embraer smaller Jets but also many Bombardier crjs as well but what many of my friends in the United States might not realize is that the abundance of e175s in Disguise and airports today is more or less unique to the US the e175 is actually only the smallest member of the Embraer EET family and while it is very common in the states and by far the one that has been made in the greatest numbers everywhere else on the planet the e175 is actually quite rare all right there are a few here and there but its bigger siblings the e190 and e195 out sell it very comfortably everywhere else that odd disparity has to do with the almost

5:23 unique shape of the Hub and spoke domestic aviation in the US where there's a split between mainl and Regional fleets as well as cruise and scope Clause agreements between the airline majors and their unions these govern how many aircraft Airlines can operate through Regional subsidiaries how big they're allowed to be and on what specific routes that they can operate now I'm not going to analyze scope close agreements here or how Embraer and their customers got things really wrong with their e175 E2 regarding this but the point that I want to make is that while Embraer is UN questionably a much smaller player than Boeing or Airbus their aircraft are by no means limited to only regionals the e190 and the E1 195s were

6:11 actually big enough to replace some old MD 80s and boing 717s and yet blue still operates over a dozen of those larger and Brer e Jets as we record this on top of that the egyp family and the re-engine E2 family aren't even the biggest aircraft that Embraer has now made more recently they have also launched the c390 which is a military cargo aircraft about the size of a locked C130 Hercules and if we compare that aircraft to the A320 for example the c390 is actually quite similar in size now the reason I'm comparing those two is because umbrea chose the international AO engines v2500 for it which is a turbo fan that also Powers many Airbus A320

6:58 aircraft so Embraer certainly knows how to engineer and build an aircraft this size with modern avionics and other systems included it even has active Sid sticks for its Pilots which is something that I personally love now here you might ask okay if Embraer are capable of Designing and making planes that could rival the 737 and the Airbus A320 then why haven't they done so already and the answer is that they almost did just that not too long ago but stopped short of actually executing it and crucially for this story most reasons why Embraer didn't go through with it are no longer there and while we are on the subject of things that are no longer there have you

7:45 ever found yourself in a new country but without any internet connection but I have and it's super super frustrating which is why I am so happy to introduce today's sponsor s s is the e map that keeps you connected wherever you go created by the tech Wizards at Nord s currently offers super affordable data plans in over 150 countries making physical SIM cards just about as obsolete as flip phones setting it up is really simple you just download the s app choose your plan and then download and activate your plan I always activate it before the aircraft leaves the gate that way it's already working when I land s is compatible with both

8:30 IOS and Android and they provide 24/7 support in case you would need it which I never have by the way it's always been working seamlessly for me and it's also saved me loads of money on roaming charges so if you want to stay connected effortlessly when you're out traveling save money and avoid the stress of getting physical SIM cards go over to s.com SL Mentor now and use the code Mentor now for a 15% discount on your first purchase thank you so much s for supporting our work now let's continue despite the success of its e175 in the United States embraer's EET family suffered from well quite a bit of bad timing you see when a manufacturer launches a new aircraft

9:17 recouping their investment normally takes several years or even decades so in practice from the moment it enters service a new airliner ideally needs a couple of decades or more in which it will remain relatively competitive before any updates are needed to ensure that it stays relevant well the first eget entered service in 2004 and like all new aircraft types it then took a few years to gain popularity especially since this was a time when similarly sized turbo props were still popular in the United States and in many other markets but the brers E2 which was essentially an updated eget family then entered Service as early as in 200 16 and this wasn't just a quick re-engine Affair either it

10:04 had received a new Wing resized fuselage and tail surfaces and fly by wire for all primary flight controls quite a big list of changes in updates for a plane family that was barely more than 10 years old so why did Embraer do this well the simple answer was that they had to because they were responding to the bomb year C Series which today is better known as the Airbus a220 but that wasn't the only aircraft on embraer's mind back then either the period that we're talking about here is the early 2010s and that is also the time that Airbus announced plans for its new Airbus A320 Neo family which of course eventually caused boing to follow

10:50 suit with a plane that we all now know as the boing 737 Max back then the Embraer E Series had been in service for just about years with the larger e190 and e195 variants being even one or two years younger than that so around 2010 Embraer would really have preferred to leave those designs alone and devote any spare engineering and design resources toward something new and possibly bigger so why didn't they do that then well consider the competitive environment that I just described unlike the stale Airbus boing Dooly that we have today Bombardier was introducing the C Series which aimed to replace many of the MD 80s and MD 90s that embraer's larger

11:37 eets were also targeting and meanwhile there was also another manufacturer that I haven't mentioned yet Mitsubishi who was developing the Mitsubishi Regional Jet or the mrj at the very same time that aircraft would eventually go through some extensive changes but Embraer could tell that this mrj or space jet as it was later renamed could directly threaten its Regional e175 in other words Embraer saw that its larger eets were about to be eclipsed by not only the C Series S a220 and the big players the A320 NE on the max but also that Mr Bish's new jet was about to kill off the smaller e175 now as many of you might have

12:22 already guessed all of this wasn't just a coincidence booring Airbus Bombardier and now Ms a b were introducing these new or updated aircraft because of the availability of a new generation of engines the CFM leap one for the 77 Max and many Airbus A320 NEOS and the pratton Whitney geared turbo fan for the rest of the Airbus A320 NEOS and for all new Bombardier and Mitsubishi the original EET family used the general electric cf34 engine which had first entered service in the early 1980s and was actually a civilian evolution of the military tf34 which dates back all the way back to the' 70s now many other Regional Jets also

13:08 used a variant of this engine at the time including many of Bombardier crj models but they now quite obviously couldn't compete in efficiency with those new engines that were coming out so like I said this was just really bad timing for umbrea that's why they didn't design a new bigger aircraft than the eies in the last decade deade and a half but if they would have felt confident about the prospects of their own eget family well then they probably would have contemplated jumping into the ring with Airbus and boing and Bombardier for that matter for a plane about the size of the 737 and the Airbus A320 but now instead they decided to put their energy into modifying the eer and to make it as modern and competitive as

13:54 possible that meant creating the E2 which now has essentially the same practi Whitney geared turbo fans at the Airbus a220 does now with the benefit of hindsight perhaps it was actually a good thing that Embraer didn't go for a bigger all new aircraft because one reason why the Bombardier C Series ended up becoming the Airbus a220 was the Fierce and I mean literally Fierce competition that Boeing in particular put up against Bombardier something that I have actually covered in a separate video now that was far from the only reason that Bombardier gave up the C Series but the point that I'm making here is that this hostile competitive environment of the early and mid 2010s just doesn't exist anymore with boing

14:40 basically focused on survival and recovery for the next few years Airbus just can't make a 320 and 321 NEOS fast enough so they not in any hurry to invest on a replacement for the time being meanwhile forecasts for future aircraft demand have actually gone up creating plenty of room for an extra player in this size range so what kind of options does emba realistically have well right now they have finished development works on the E2 and on their military c390 like I mentioned before so that means that they have a lot of Engineers looking for something to do and one idea that I explored a few months ago was that they could once again try a partnership with

15:25 boing now those two companies had discussed this before for and were actually in very Advanced contract talks as a response to Airbus taking over the bombard series but those talks collapsed back in 2020 under the weight of Boeing's Max crisis and of course the pandemic and those talks didn't exactly turn into an amicable split either with boing claiming that Embraer weren't fulfilling their obligations and Embraer suing for damages but what I saw was that with boing on the new leadership and inra are still looking for growth the reasons why they originally started those talks were actually still there but such a venture would of course need funding and with

16:11 Boeing Now set to spend the next few years looking inwardly to sort themselves out that Avenue might still be closed for braer so should they try to go at it alone well as it turns out not everyone thinks so in an interview with John ostra of the air current which you definitely should check out if you haven't already by the way Ed basan which is the CEO of Delta Airlines expressed some doubts about the prospects of an Embraer competitor for the 737 and the airb A320 and he did so for a different reason which was operational complexity now there was a time not too long ago when an airline like Delta might have a short and medium Hall Fleet consisting of a lot of different types like 737s Airbus a320s md8 and boing

16:59 717s and in fact Delta had exactly such a fleet until 2020 along with boing 757s that they still use today plus Airbus a220s that they began introducing in 2018 for a Mainline carrier like Delta the prospect of replacing all of those types with a fleet of only Airbus a320s 737s and a220s would be very attractive it would for example limit the need to keep spare part for so many different G yet not to mention separate training tracks for Pilots engineers and mechanics so for Delta adding another separate type from Embraer might not be a very attractive Prospect at least not for the near future but not all Airlines have a fleet of single ale jets that is

17:46 already so diverse ower highlighted the irony in Delta's current stance because about a decade ago that Airline practically cultivated a third manufacturer in the form of Bombardier by placing an order for the C Series but that's another story in any case Bastian and Delta today are definitely the exception not the rule according to the air current the rest of the majors in the United States plus several other big names around the world like luftansa have reportedly informed and braer that they would be interested in such an aircraft yo and selm moin Aviation week reports that airlines are reassuring in braer that they will collectively order hundreds of airplanes if the company takes the plunge and really commits to

18:33 it now this is interesting because in the spring of 20124 Embraer stated that while they have the capability to develop a bigger jet they have no concrete plans to do so over the next few years so does this mean that there are airlines out there that are currently trying to talk in braer into changing their mind well talks like that takes place behind closed doors but a company like Embraer has to Ure hundreds of orders so with so many Airline customers involved we're bound to learn more if Embraer actually presses ahead further but it's not just Airlines and lessers that Embraer needs to talk to here one of the main reasons why Embraer was interested in that original partnership with Boeing was because launching a new airliner on their own

19:19 would be extremely risky only the development cost for such a plane would today be several times the market capitalization of the company itself and and in practice this means that the company would only start a project like this if they have a good partner or two or three or even more and maybe that's the real question that we should be asking here if Embraer presses ahead with plans for a new Mainline single a airliner with a capacity between 160 to 240 seats then who will be their Partners over the past few years Embraer have talked with investors and governments in India Japan and even the Middle East with Saudi Arabia looking like a likely partner for the company but this is also where some geopolitics

20:07 comes into play because another country that Embraer and Brazil have been courting lately is China embraer's home country Brazil is the be in the bricks after all Embraer recently struck a deal to convert older eets into Freighters in China something that Boeing has already been doing for years and like McDonald Douglas did with the MD 80s and the MD 990s in the past and Airbus is actually doing right now and braer has previously had joint ventures in China to assemble aircraft like the ERG 145 for example here it's worth pointing out that Embraer relies on a worldwide network of suppliers many of whom are common with those of Boeing and Airbus and as a smaller company they

20:54 can't have the kind of vertical integration that would Shield them from industry short Pages finally one last twist to the Embraer story is something that one of you my viewers have recently brought up could Embraer just stretch the E 195 E2 further instead of designing an all new aircraft would that be enough to let them compete with the larger versions of the Airbus a220 and even the likes of the Airbus A320 and the 737 Max 8 well that will depend on each airline's cabin configuration although the four AR breast economy eating for the E2 series is far from ideal here but the recent move by Embraer may be a clue that they are considering such a scenario and that has to do with automated takeoffs that Embraer have

21:41 already announced and that they're planning for their larger aircraft now this is a technological topic that I may have to cover in a separate video but the idea here is to allow the aircraft to take off safely with a little bit more weight on board without risking a tail strike this extra weight would then allow the existing aircraft to take off with more fuel giving it a larger range but that same technology could also theoretically allow the fuselage to be a little bit stretched with the new automation keeping the tail safe from striking the ground now that would likely still come with the need for a slightly bigger and taller landing gear but it would be an ingenious way of getting around the problem with tail strike margins if they want to go down that route what do you thinking here is

22:29 this realistic and how do you think boing in airb would respond to this let me know in the comments here below and consider joining my Patron crew if you want to discuss these type of topics in more detail with me directly I'm actually just now preparing for hang out with my patrons after I finished filming this I would also now like to introduce a new co-host that will be joining us shortly here on Mentor now because I have actually managed to convince my friend and fellow boing 727 instructor and examiner Ben to come in and present some of these videos now a few of you would have already met Ben in our virtual boying 737 courses which you can find links to below by the way and Ben is one of the kindest most knowledgeable people that I know and he definitely

23:15 shares my passion for all things Aviation but especially for explaining things in a non-complicated and interesting way I hope that you will join me in welcoming Ben into the mentor family and please ask your question to him in the comments here below I'm sure that he will come in and answer them you can also find out more about him if you go to Instagram and look for airline pilot performance my name is Peter hornfeld and you are watching Mentor now have an absolutely fantastic day and I'll see you next time bye-bye