Unique Idea of Pakistan where army’s power grows as it damages the nation. Munir the case in point

0:10 mutual funds top. This is the right [Music] times. This is the right time. Investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully. More than a decade ago, I wrote a national interest headlined the idea of Pakistan. It is from that it is from that that today's somewhat

0:57 unconventional episode of kata clutter is drawn. It picks up a thread from there and then then then looks at where we have come today. That argument started with a common cliched trope though only to dump it saying that that trope is outdated. I will come to it in just a little while. And the conclusions it led to have not only been proven since but have acquired an entirely new currency now with the elevation of Aimuner and the rise of a new mutant in the multi-generation hybrid structure of governance in Pakistan since hyphenated with us or not Pakistan will never go away as a neighbor remember what Vaj used to say you cannot choose your neighbors Pakistan will never go away as a neighbor and its hostility towards

1:44 India will remain intact. act even if it waxes waxes and wins at various points of time. We need to pay closer attention to studying its power structure and what is central to it or what what lies at its core that is its army at which point I will read you a few lines of poetry that Pakistani military intelligence territory issues to its officersmies to the cadets as they come in. It's it's a wish and a prayer as the as the words would suggest. Stay with me. I will read out the words for you. As the words would suggest to you, I it was probably written by an American though the Pakistanis probably thought it was it was some British Kipling type. I draw

2:30 this I draw this from Steve Kohhan's seinal the Pakistan army page 52. And please stay with me as we reach the conclusion of this argument because I will bring back to you the same piece of poetry but with a twist that completes the story. And here is and here is the poem. This is page 52 of Steve Cohen's book and the chapter titled the officer's core. And it said and it says God give us men a time like this demands. I'm sure it an American wrote it wrote it. It should have been demands, strong minds, great hearts, true faith and ready hands. Men, men whom the lust of office does not kill, men whom the spoils of

3:17 office cannot buy, hello. This is said to the cadets in the Pakistan army because the moment somebody becomes an officer in Pakistan army, they think that to become the president of Pakistan or to become the equivalent of the president of Pakistan to to wield more power than an elected prime minister of Pakistan is actually a reasonable legitimate aspiration. However, this this prayer tells them men men whom the lust of office does not kill. Men whom the spoils of office cannot buy, men who possess opinion and a will, men who have honor, men who will not lie. Hello again. Men who can stand before a demagogue. Hello. Hello again. And damn

4:03 his treacherous flatteries without winking. Tall men, sunburned, who live above the fog to public duty and in private thinking. Those few lines that I read to you, you will also see them on your screen from this page. You can read them at leisure. Those few lines, you might wonder, do these really apply to Pakistan army? Huh? Think of these lines. Men who men who possess an opinion and will, men whom the spoils of office cannot buy, men whom the le lust of office does not kill, etc., etc etc etc men of honor who will not lie does this does does this apply to Pakistan army now the old theory that I was talking about the old trope which I said that I had used 10 years back and which

4:48 which I had then said we should dump let me come back to it that is that is the old gizapeta theory that is army Allah and America run Pakistan that is Gizapeta outdated old over the use by date on that was over more than a decade ago. Neither Allah nor America defines the power structure of Pakistan. Neither Allah as in as in religious politics. Not not God Almighty. Religious politics. Neither Allah nor America defines the power structure of Pakistan. That power lies entirely with the third A its army. So a solitary in decides who has the power in Pakistan and what they do with that power. It is about time

5:34 that we including me conceded that our analysis and understanding of Pakistani polity, society and power structure has been deeply flawed. We were wrong. Or we might say one/ird right, two/3s flawed. Here is why I'm explaining to you. For decades now, the tired but trusted AAA army Allah America formulation that has held among analysts. The argument being that nothing moves there without one of these wishing or with one of these vetoing. That means two might wish but third can veto right or one can wish other can follow. This has been questioned now for 101 15 years and the fact is by now this equation is completely over. It should be buried. My revised hypothesis is that Allah and

6:21 America are unnecessarily blamed for the uniquely complicated picture in Pakistan. Of course, I'm neither an atheist, nor so foolhardy as to question divine majesty. But neither religion nor the relationship with the US defines the power structure or ideology of Pakistan. Only the army does. The army defines the national ideology, pretends to protect it, but definitely prospers from it. I am therefore sticking my neck out to dump the wisdom of more than six decades and put forward some sweeping generalizations going backwards chronologically over the past several weeks say beginning 22nd of April the pelgam outrage we have seen various

7:08 things we have seen various developments that we've been talking about I will not go into them in detail but these have culminated with aim's promotion his beginning to speak on every issue. He was doing it even earlier including Pakistan's economy and Pakistan's prime minister in his presence speaking like he's actually singing his praises when they are around. You can see who the boss is. In fact, I will quote to you one example about the powers that the Pakistani army has had in that system. Even when there have been elected governments, this has only become more pronounced now. So one example I will mention to you is American independent journalist investigative journalist Seamur Hash the prominent American investigative journalists expose in the

7:56 London review of books on the Osama bin Ladin killing he had claimed that it was a stage managed Tamasha with CIA and ISI/Pakistan army and Millie Bhagat as we might call it in the subcontinent this had an underlying message and that's my interpretation that in a nation of 200 million then now it's about 250 million that in a nation of 200 million then with nuclear weapons two generals Ashwak Perves Kayani and Emma Shuja Pasha one army chief and one ISI chief felt empowered to make a deal like this without any reference to the elected civilian government. This was this was the elected civilian government after the departure of Perves Musharab.

8:41 Nobody told them anything. But these generals made a deal with the CIA and the Americans. That was Seamour Hersh's claim. Hersh's claims were rubbished by his American peers, which is what journalists do when beaten on a story. I know that from experience when people get beaten on the story. The first thing they try to do is to try and get the story denied or to try and pick holes in it. That's what was done to Seamour Hush also. Now I will take another minute to elaborate on Seamour Hush's story. One of the very few sources named in Harsh's story was left general Assad Durani. You remember him? He wrote a book jointly with Amarji Singh Dulat. He was ISI chief between 1990 and 1992. And he supposed to have told

9:28 Seamor Haj that this deal was made between Pakistan Army ISI and the CIA US government. I met Asadurani for the first time in December 1998 at a track to meeting in Kurumba village Resort, Maldives, a 10-minute boat ride away from Malay airport. Several Indian and Pakistani former military and intelligence chiefs were there also writers, journalists, strategic scholars from both sides talking about the improving climate in India-Pakistan relations months after the nuclear test by both. I said one reason was the relative calm in Kashmir that there was relative calm in Kashmir and that's how our relationship was looking better. Durani did not like it. He had been in retirement for many years but he did not like it. He looked up coldly at me and

10:14 said just one short sentence. It can all change very quickly in Kashmir. I'm quoting him. It can all change very quickly in Kashmir. Warning delivered. returned to doodling on the conference notepad. Two months later, Atali Waji went to Lahore on the bus. The Lahore declaration was signed. In May the same year, fighting broke out in Cargill. You can safely conclude that infiltration was at its peak when our track 2 meeting was on in Maldives and Durani, a former spy master then, was fully in the no and also cocky and indiscreet. It stands to reason therefore that he would also be on the inside track on the Osama raid. If he was a source for the Hush story, H found

11:00 a reliable source because the Pakistani army as an institution has a continuity that many of us outside do not easily understand. There were doubts elsewhere in the world also notably in India. But there was one country where these were by and large believed readily. In fact, speculation immediately began on the identity of the ISI walk-in who sold Osama to the CIA. In fact, the theory that Samur H's article talked about was that some ISI officer walked into the American embassy and offered them this secret and Osama bin Laden's whereabouts. That was the walk-in. First, stay with me, take a deep breath, lean back and look backwards and think

11:47 and think hard. We are in the 17th year of uninterrupted elected civilian governments. Remember I said civilian governments. I didn't say ruled by civilian governments. This has shown that the army in Pakistan no longer has the stomach to take over the power formally. It has demonstrated that it does not need to. While it does not want to take over power power formally, it has also demonstrated that it does not need to. See Phil Marshall Asimuner now power stays with the army anyway over these 17 years rather than grow in stature civil governments have diminished. See how the army took over not just military operations but also diplomacy during opindur and after Marco

12:35 Ruby also finally called general afunir then general assume when he wanted to close close the deal when he wanted to close the deal on a ceasefire and the note of assertion that you hear not just from the army chiefs now but even from the DGs of ISPR lately the current one you've seen him talk. You've seen him talk also in the presence of his chief. It looks like they all know that they are the bosses and they are in command and the civilian government if anything is there on this outside. That's a that's a little bit of a little bit of an artifact. You can go further back for more evidence. Imran Khan seeking GHQ intervention to bring down Nawash Sharif in 2017 18. The army advising all politicians to shun conflict among

13:22 amongst themselves. the chief attending top political meetings when body language as well as the order of seating tells you who the boss is. Most Pakistanis acknowledge this. Some even rude this but that number is now reducing. The distrust of generals is widespread. That is the reason why Samur Hers story found most immediate acceptance in Pakistan while there were skepticism in America in Britain and in India as well. Yet yet they rarely hold the institution of the army responsible. Isn't it odd? The people rarely trust the generals. Their country keeps on getting messed up. But they almost never hold the institution of the army responsible. I asked my Pakistani

14:07 friends a cruel question. Why is the army held in such awe when it has lost your country? Over half its territory. That's Bangladesh. Got no more of Kashmir than you had in 1948. In fact, they have less of Kashmir than that than they had in 1984 because they lost Siain. And after 1971, they lost a bunch of very important heights in Turuk up north in the Himalayas and also also in Cargill. The same army has reduced your country into a university of radicalism, destroyed its institutions, depleted the economy. This enables the army to build mythologies. the stalemates like 1985 and now and then a defeat Cargill and

14:52 now Ops Synindur into victories and a proper full and full and proper defeat like 1971 into stories of deceit by some by some generals and incompetence of other individual generals. The only time you see questioning of the army is when a general has spent close to 10 years in power. That is Zul Hak Perves Musharaf or messed up a war with India. Aub Khan, Yaya Khan. Yet the institution finds something soon enough to re redeem itself. In the most recent period, the army was in that kind of bad order. Mainly because they jailed Imran Khan. They denied him power. He was the most popular politician. They didn't let him contest. They jailed him. They jailed

15:40 many of his people. And there was a popular anger with the army. Even that's over now. So far, even Imran Khan has been supporting the army. It's only now that he's issued a statement. See it on your screens. It's only now that he's issued a statement attacking Phil Marshall Afunir for harassing his wife. In 2008, the army following the Mushar affairs was in bad order. Not just bad order, it was hated at that point. That is when the slogan that the terrorism that you see, what's behind it? The uniform is behind it. That slogan emerged at that time. But the army then used the 2611 attacks to create an utterly fake spectre of an

16:25 Indian attack. They were the guilty party. They were behind the attacks and they created now the spectre fake spectre that an Indian attack was coming. They had air for jets flying low over their own cities to build the fervor and overnight the army was the savior and asali zarddari's elected government just spineless spineless particularly as it even asked the ISI chief to visit India that visit was by the way aborted this was the point when mushara tried to resurrect himself using his disastrous military misadventure of cargill to build another mythology in fact he said at that point that in cargill we India's by their throats. It's only the weak politicians who force us to make a compromise. So the army always has the power to define define

17:12 the context and to write the history. You know it's the oldest saying that the winner writes the history. In Pakistan's case, army is always the winner. So they always write the history. They can also rewrite the history. More than 75 years after the departure of Muhammad Ali Jina, very few civilian role models of heroes have come up. Heroes you will name new roads, cities, institutions after whose busts or memorials you might put up in your schools, colleges, government offices, public figures, politicians, political leaders, not even for not even former generals. They are held in disrepute. Some cricketers maybe but even among the cricketers the most prominent the biggest hero has now been

17:58 in jail for 2 years and nobody can question the army. Through this period we've hardly had any contemporary politicians, intellectuals, artists, scientists. I do not believe you would insist a Khan was a civilian or a scientist. Physicist Abdul Salam Nobel laurate was not just Pakistan's but the entire Islamic world's first Nobel scientist but never found his place in the Pakistani mind and history because he was not even seen to be a Muslim. He was an Ahmedia. Most of Pakistan's post 1947 heroes have been soldiers, not generals but soldiers, gallantry award winners in wars with India. They have streets and landmarks named after them. And as I told you, I haven't seen one

18:45 named after a general. And why? Probably because the most famous ones ended up being exiled, discredited, defeated, or assassinated or a combination of these. The generals went away in disrepute, but their deeds did not hurt the institution of the army. Again, there is a massive surge in the army's popularity. Post opindur. A victory has been declared. Support for its war on India. now is near unanimous. The leaders of Lashkar Taiba Jash Muhammad are being hailed in public. The army, the core commander of Lahore attended the funeral of one killed, one killed in the IF strikes. Even in the past when Zerbe a operation Zerb AB was

19:31 launched against the domestic terrorists Taliban Pakistan after the provocation of the Peshawar army school attack very few dare to ask why the Pak Pakistan army had built the Pakistani Taliban in the first place. I also asked my Pakistani friends another cruel question. Why is the army held in such reverence and awe when it has lost you more than half your country that's Bangladesh got you no more of Kashmir than you had in 1948 in fact it has less because it lost Siain and also some of the territories it lost in 1971 crucial territories particularly high up in Turuk etc facing Baltistan it has destroyed your institutions made the country a university and exporter of radicalism

20:18 driven out investment and skilled people and depleted its economy. Until 40 years ago, Pakistan's per capita income was 60 70% higher than India's. Today, it's almost a half if it's not exactly a half, but I would say today, India's per capita GDP, per capita income is about 175% of of Pakistan's. So, what was a 65% lead in 1985 has now become a 75 percentage point deficit. From where did it come? The army has ruled for most of this period directly or by proxy or now or now which is neither directly nor proxy. As I told you it's a new hybrid, a new mutant. Yet nobody blames the army. I believe Pakistan lost its economic

21:04 advantage early 1980s onwards. That is when they were 65% more than us in their per capita GDP. As Zadan flushed by the Afghan jihad and flushed with American money discovered radicalized terror as a weapon of choice against India. If we could do it to the Soviet Union, we could do it to India as well. Aub, Yaya, Zia, Musharaf and now Kayani. None of the former chiefs is popular or rather not unpopular. They are all unpopular. Yet their army is the only institution that is trusted and respected. How do you square the two? That's the reason I argue that it is the army that defined a postja ideology for Pakistan. A new postja ideology. This Pakistan that you

21:50 have is not based on Jana's ideology. It has no resemblance to Jenna's ideology. The army captured the popular imagination, institutionalized it through textbooks and military mythologies and through Pakistan studies in curriculum. The army merely discovered America in the 50s to counter India and radicalism which is actually the more appropriate word for Allah in the early 80s as it saw the success of the good Afghan jihad. The Americans are widely detested in Pakistan so are at least one set of armed radicals that is TDP right now and at the same time the religious parties never got a vote share in double figures. That's why my current hypothesis that in the Pakistani situation only one A really matters. A

22:37 for army. Good thing is as my friend of many decades and the fi finest Pakistani commentator Khali Dharma who passed away last year. He used to write a column for us in the Indian express. He pointed out several years ago there is there is an inclination at least in Pakistan there has been an inclination to debate the issue. His optimism came from the fact that the fairly recent wellressearched but scathing book fighting to the end the Pakistani army's way of war by American scholar see Christine fear had not only been not banned in Pakistan but was being widely bought and discussed. I believe that this book is one of the better if brutal insights into the minds of the world's most ideological army which also happens to have as many nukes

23:24 as India and Israel if not more definitely more than Israel and is so overwhelmingly popular with its people. Now two things before I let you go. I told you that I will bring you some kind of a postcript to that poem. Let me just read out to you what Steve Cohan writes. He says more poignantly the prayer that's the name of the poem the prayer distributed by the intelligence directorate was in fact written by an American writer and poet particularly in 18 185965 and refers to the United States during its civil war. Most Pakistani officers who have read it assumed that its author was an anonymous British army or British Indian army officer. Furthermore, right Steve Kohhan, the version as printed in Pakistan or as

24:10 released by the Pakistani intelligence directorate, Army Intelligence Directorate to its cadets omits the last four lines of the original. So listen to the last four lines. These lines tell you a story. This omission tells you a story. And the lines are for while the rebel with their thumborn creeds, their large professions and their little deeds, hello Pakistan army, mingle in selfish strife, low freedom weeps, wrong rules the land and waiting justice sleeps. So this omission also tells you a story of how an institution builds a power structure in a way that it's customized to keeping its preeminence forever. What we are seeing in Pakistan

24:57 right now is the same story playing out and it's very important for us to understand this as we go ahead because India may want to get a move on and move ahead of Pakistan and maybe even ignore Pakistan but there is one institution in Pakistan which will keep pulling you back that is the Pakistani army and again the irony is that while each such effort takes their own country backwards their population then becomes even more loyal to the same institution. That's the contradiction we have to live with and we have to deal with. [Music] [Applause] [Music]