0:00 what a massive week in Bitcoin and crypto folks what a massive week is this the end is this finish is the bull market all over that's have a big look at the entire crypto Market what's happening to bitcoin what's happened to ethereum first of all what's causing all this no one has given you guys a good answer I've pretty much said for quite a few months now that the US economy is in trouble and on what I believe the crash was was essentially front running this thing look at that you might not think this is important but yeah that's why cryptos are crashing this is the GDP this is the Fed Federal Reserve itself one of the branches from Atlanta measuring the GDP as we speak they're not waiting till like March to give you that
0:47 number they're giving it to you in real time it's just dropped off a cliff face from like 2.3% to minus 1.5% minus 1.5% that's I don't know what you called reset because it's basically just going well the economy is growing at 2.3% a year which is isn't great but it's at least it's growing and then it goes from that soon as um new president comes in goes to minus 1.5% well as I said in my last video whether you like Trump or you like Biden I don't care I I'm not a supporter of either of them but what has happened is basically Trump is literally cutting jobs right we can't argue with that is literally cutting jobs from with Elon Musk doing Doge when
1:35 you cut jobs the economy has less jobs that's whatever the government Cuts they're saying he he his wish list is cut to up to a million jobs and yeah that's great for the long run for the longer run that's great for America for any government probably to be more efficient to cut the fat but in the short run how are you going to make up for that 1 million jobs let's say even if you can theice priv sector of us can make up for 1 million jobs then what happens is you have zero job growth you've only you literally cut 1 million and you at 1 million so that's zero job growth remember how that job number we NFP jobs added nonfarm payrolls that we look at every single uh month right it
2:21 adds something like 200,000 300,000 jobs uh you know even in a weak economy we're going to zero even if you add a million jobs in the private sector so that's something I've been warning about and this is what's causing the stock market to tank and when the stock market tanks when the stock market tanks then we see Bitcoin right front running because I as I explained in my last video they see Bitcoin as sort of a high leverage or high beta Tech stock it's basically front running the mag magnificent 7 the Teslas the the um Nvidia stocks dropping and those Magnificent Seven stocks the stock market is front running is front running the US GDP nose diving but is it
3:09 all over is this the end can Bitcoin go down right uh I think it's down like 28 30% right now and come back most importantly can old Seasons come back ethereum is down something like something like um 50% now can ethereum beat down 50% and still come back right we're going to have a look at that but before we do let's just answer the question of which crypto exchange does Pablo He-Man use well Pablo uses a crypto exchange that's non keyc that means it doesn't require your ID that means yes Americans can use it because they can't even see who you are does you don't need to hand you your ID the IRS can't see you the tax office can't see you FBI CIA nobody can see that it is you and because I like it so much Pao has made a deal with them right P he and
3:56 bit Unix are pushing out this deal which is we're in the to Tesla Model 3 Rolex or Vision Pro just by trading limited time only limited time only if you're watching this on uh YouTube then it's the description the link is in the description below you in the description below you but if you're watching I'm say other big platforms then basically just go to my profile page right go to my profile page and right here next to my my head there's the stand link we click on that and basically it's the first thing that pops up okay um but to keep in mind just only on this link only on the public human link okay let's go um back to uh where the markets are first of
4:41 all first of all this is um I had folks ask me in in um uh my Discord today um is it over is it going to be a bounce from 73k uh you know I'm not shy from making big calls so if I thought Bitcoin was going to 20K I would say it's going to 20K it's the bull market is over I said it's I've said in my on every social media platform on every um on all my crypto Discord messages that I said the target is around 30 73k and if we get there we are still in an uptrend we are still in a bull Trend why is that it's really simple you basically have a higher high higher low higher
5:29 high High higher low higher high higher low at 73k or 72k bounce and then you can still make a higher high right that's literally the definition of a bull market and look at this this supporting trend line is not broken higher high higher low now in terms of um uh in terms of um uh pullbacks we went from 109k let's say down to 73 3K 72k 73k that's what a 36k drop 36k drop percentage wise that would be like a 32 you know 31 32% drop is that a big deal I'm pretty sure
6:16 like most people in crypto can already tell you like even that is what is that 70 from 73k down to 49k right that's like um a 24K drop but percentage wise that's probably like a 30 something per drop as well like Bitcoins four of these four of these 30% drops and it comes back like look at this this is last spol run this was the top at 64k right and then the drop was down to 28k that's easily over 50% over 50% and it comes back so I will say however what I would be careful of is this is a double top right double top 64k 69k this
7:01 is what happened last B round what I would be careful of is I don't think Cycles repeat what happened last cycle like if if this is what happened last bull run then I don't think this is this will repeat this bull run right I don't think it will repeat this bull run so I don't think it'll be a double top like this but then then you're saying okay well if it's not going to be a double top then what what could happen pplo then you know that's just say say that's just spitball what are the scenarios one we could have a right shoulder you could have a massive left shoulder head right shoulder so bounce to something like at TAG say 92k or even tag here
7:47 9900k pull everyone back in right and then go down that's one possibility or what could happen is it could be like the 2000 um 2013 Bull Run let me just pull your attention to the 2013 Bull Run okay this is 2013 this is one bull run right that started in something like October 2011 ended November 2013 okay we had this pullback it looks pretty small to you doesn't it it looks pretty small that's because I'm using a logarithmic chart let's say if I use a regular chart that's what that's what
8:33 this pullback looks like so in the middle this was March 2 April from April 1st then it went to the high here in this red bar here was the high was $259 for Bitcoin 260 right what was what was the low the low was $45 that's move to the the week after what's the low here the low here was $50 so from $260 down to $50 that's like what that's like a uh that's like a 80% crash 80% crash in the middle of a
9:18 bull market and even down here the low here was 63 that's still like a 70% plus 75% Crash from the high here crash is 70 % crashes 80% and then goes on to make another high so we cannot rule out Bitcoin right does something like this 30% 30 this is what a 70 80% crash and then it goes up right and then continues the bull market runs for how long this is from April top to final top in November right uh then let's have a look at uh 2017 bull run this was no December
10:04 again ended um ended uh on high uh let's just randomly pick a a pullback let's have a look at this one uh this looks pretty small but this is log rithmic chart so this is $2,967 almost $3,000 almost $33,000 and what's the pullback uh low is 1830 1830 so that's that's like a 40% pullback that's 35 40% pullback so so there is another one and you you don't even notice that because it's a logarithmic chart this is 37% pullback and then you still had a big run right so this is a 2021 Bull Run double top this is the first time we had a double top
10:49 right um I just showed you guys this is more than 50% pullback and it runs and tops in November again right so in theory what could happen is we could have a move down here that would only be a 35 31 32% pullback and you could still have a big run here and when a runs it may not even top out at um SE uh uh 109k it could actually go like something like this a repeat of 2013 Bull Run will be something like this right I just randomly randomly put my cursor here here right what say for example 130 140
11:36 that could easily happen right and this is I would I would be surprised if it ended in November and December just like every other time I would think it would end earlier well I would you know certainly think more much more seriously about about um front running folks if if we got to that stage cuz it's it so far the bull market ended in about SE November December every time right um so right now I mean if we show this chart to anybody who's a chartist and if we just covered up you know Bitcoin and covered up the price scale and just says do you think that's a bull market do you think that's a bull market I think everyone even some any guy on the street
12:21 would say yeah that's a bull market right until until we have a right shoulder a bounce right shoulder gets rejection and then breaks this level of support around the 70s breaks this red trend line we don't have any right to call it a bare market yet then you're just purely guessing that this is the top and we're going to go into lower low lower lows lower highs lower lows lower highs um there's um there's not much evidence of that yet except except I keep on warning you guys about the fact that that um uh US Stocks could be in a lot of trouble why because GDP now you might think that's boring but GDP is tanking because of all the reasons we've
13:07 been talking about because Trump cutting uh jobs cutting government spending that's a good thing that's a good thing right but in the short term you can we can all agree that's literally going to be cutting some jobs right now the other thing uh I just want to quickly show you guys is uh Nvidia as people are asking me how's the mvidia uh uh earnings going to do because when this stock tanks the US Stock Market is basically broken it basically ends the Bull Run for the US stocks and that means Bitcoin tanks for NVIDIA for example um let me put it on a daily scale it reported better than expected earnings better
13:53 than expected Revenue better than expected margin it was a great earnings call right and yet it went down 8% the next day like it reported after the bail on this day and the next day it went down 8% right so um this was was something that I had drawn in on December like mid to late December as deep seek was coming out I said deep seek is basically going to kill this bull market right and this is the pattern I've drawn so that's something to watch out for if you have a reason to say that the bull market is over then the two reasons I could think of is one one that um uh the NASDAQ Bull Run is over because us jobs US economy
14:39 is going down now or Reason number two is uh because um you know um the NASDAQ is led by this Nvidia stock and Nvidia is topping now because deep seek has essentially ended the the the whole GPU hyperscale business model of Nvidia and so the whole I narrative on on Wall Street is kind of ending right now that's that would be valid excuses if if you say uh the market as top I could accept that um just remember that that um um that's that's always possible we're looking at probabilities here we're looking at probabilities okay I'll give you one more thing to uh uh to think about to to chew over this is the great
15:24 and fear Index right now we're taking around 17 or 18 right extreme fear this is for the stock market right this is for the stock market for crypto it's also in the extreme fear area but that's look at in terms of timeline this would have been a year ago I think yeah a year ago March the 1st and um since a year ago we've basically had um we've basically had uh this is the pretty much the the worst or second worst no I would say that's the worst we got to 16 yesterday what was this 17 so it's pretty much the worst in a year and
16:10 it's worse than August the 5th did you see that that's August the 5th what happened on August 5th the 5th August the 5th was when Bitcoin crashed to 49k when Bitcoin crashed to 49k and it was um due to the Japanese Yen reverse car carrier trade blowing up so the Japanese Yen carry trade BL blown up let me just quickly show you guys uh it was basically this candle here this here was August the 5th right this was August the 5th and this was um uh July 20 well yeah so basically we had two weeks of Crash and boom we ended up here so at the time I said this was shoulder head shoulder and that actually turned out to be the exact bottom when fear was that
16:57 much sentiment was that bad when people were that scared I actually told everyone this was shoulder head shoulder you might remember I kept on saying 94k I made it like about three tweets two videos and kept on saying about 50 times my Discord throughout this entire period for about 3 months it's said 94k 94k 94k we got to 90 94k and then I said then everyone shared it when it got above 100K I said it would take weeks if not month to confirm above 100K and we just kept on flirting with 100 K 100K and boom we got rejected why did I say it would take weeks or month to come from above 100K um let's have a look at the longer term chart once again some of you guys have seen this before but just bear
17:44 with me let's turn it onto a monthly chart this is this is what I showed everyone on the monthly chart basically if we string up the 2017 Bull Run High 2021 Bull Run High and the 2020 5 24 Bull round high right now it it shows this trend line which is the high at around 108 109k and I told folks just to watch out because we're going to have a big rejection here right you have a big pullback but it doesn't mean the bull market is over big pullback right and um and basically the this massive this is a monthly chart look at this the massive massive topping tail
18:29 Waring about that as well and so I kept on saying this line This neckline should not be broken if it is broken we're going to 73k this line of 91.7 91.8 that's the neckline of of shoulder head shoulder right here should not be broken if it is broken then we're going to 70 well to be to be conservative okay uh basically I was saying look this is shoulder double head shoulder and um this neckline should not be broken should not be broken if it is broken it would go down to something like 75 to
19:15 80k we've already hit that because we just went to 78k to be more precise there's a chance we could actually just go to 73k and then bounce but it's not that much of a difference now because already to went to 78k 78 75 73 it's only like 3 4 5K difference now so so basically um it's fear is very high right now in the stock market in uh in crypto this could be easily could be the the bottom right of another massive bounce up to at least T 100K and if 2013 cycle plays out again could actually make a new high okay let's have a quick look at
20:00 ethereum so in conclusion it's not bearish on bitcoin yet because I mean the trend line wasn't broken the rising trend line wasn't broken the uh it's a 30% pullback um technically from a technical point of view there's not enough to call it a top just yet okay now uh ethereum ethereum is a lot more um um bearish looking or not as strong or weaker looking I should say because it did actually break this trend line see this Rising trend line that supported ethereum during the whole bull run it did break it right it did break so but
20:49 you could still argue you could still argue that um uh that this was uh you know higher high higher low higher high higher low higher high higher low equal High kind of a equal low so it's stuck in a sideways range and then could break out so let's say let's assume the worst let's assume a bare Market has started for for ethereum and this was the top uh yeah something like that this was the top where this was the top double top whatever if that's the case then um support at 2135 another support at 2,000 and um we should at least get a bounce to
21:35 something like 2750 or even like 2900 something like that break down bounce back to retest retest the rising right the rising support line retest and then go down something like that right if Bitcoin does a right shoulder then e eth would do a retest around High 2000s something like 2,900 2,800 and then breakdown so even that's the case I don't think it goes down in a straight line in the worst case scenario we'll probably still get a big bounce and then go down that's if the bull market is over but I just showed you guys what if e what if Bitcoin continues
22:20 to to run up and do a big run right what if Bitcoin does another big run like we we we can't nothing on the Bitcoin uh chart technically tells us that it is over yet um anyways like let's have a look at ethereum just even this during this pullback so This high right we had 12 months ago was 4,495 so almost 4,100 almost 4,100 and what was low the low here was 212 so that was 50% drop right 50 almost 50% drop almost 50% drop like a 49 48% drop
23:08 here once again the high was 4108 the low so far is 274 so that's also almost almost 50% drop that's like a 49% drop as well so and remember ethereum bounced up to here let's have a look at ethereum history for example this is um when Bitcoin was at 64k and then dropped to 28k um look at this drop so during the last Bull Run um high was 4380 4380 almost 4,400 the low was 22 oh sorry 1700 the low here is
23:55 1,700 right halfway point would be around 31 90 3 sorry 21 2190 so 21 90 around here that's 50% that's 50% and it basically went like down 65% when when something like down 65% ethereum and then it came back and made a new high right and that was actually a really big old Bull Run however there's one big difference there's one big difference and that is ethereum never broke it's supporting trend line this time it has it has broken a supporting trend line so I would just be careful of
24:42 that so then we say well in the worst case scenario bu runs over but would probably still have a big bounce and retest here or if Bitcoin runs to 130k 140k which could easily happen happen you could still have some sort of run like this right some sort of run like this it's difficult for me to imagine that ethereum goes kind of down down down like this whilst Bitcoin goes up up up up to 130 140k let's have a look at ethereum history okay this is the uh 200 2017 Bull Run 2017 bull
25:31 run here and um in the middle this is the ethereum let's see this pullback uh this is a logarithmic chart so I'm going to put it on on regular so you can see what kind of a pullback that is uh okay the high was 414 right 414 the low was 135 so that's way larger than 50% uh that's something like um that's something like a 65% 65% pullback 65% pullback and then still made its way and continued for another put it on logarithmic right
26:17 continue to make another high and then another high oh well let's have a look at this one let's have a look at this one as well here the trend line right the trend line was broken as well let's have a look at this pool back this pullback here um put it on regular I put it on regular so this bu run the okay that that was one we just saw that's du do the earlier one we can't even see it on the chart let's have a look at this pullback okay the high was 21.5 the low was 6.2 uh that's like again that's like a 65 65% pullback almost 70% pullback
27:04 right so in other words if we look back in ethereum history it also broke had a 70 I just showed you guys had like a 65 70% pullback broke the supporting trend line broke the rising supporting trend line and then went up and then had another 65% pullback and and then went up and finally topped uh something like January 2018 right so you could argue oh that was the old ethereum whatever whatever or whatever but just remember this ethereum right now is 400 billion well it was 400 billion here and it's like more like 200 billion in
27:50 market cap here this is much smaller than where Bitcoin was last cycle last cycle Bitcoin when it was here when Bitcoin was doing this run here from 64k down to 28k that was like uh 55% uh that was that would have been yeah like a 55% even 60% drop it's smaller than Bitcoin was much smaller than what Bitcoin was Bitcoin was already like closing on being a trillion dollar asset when this drop happened when this drop happened Bitcoin was like two or 3x larger than than ethereum so in crypto even this is
28:38 something that was much larger this is a crypto asset cryptocurrency that was 2 or 3x larger than where ethereum is now and it made like a 60% sorry 50 to 55% drop and then came back and made a new higher High um of course the key difference being it did not break down from its um well depends on how you want to draw this trend line you could okay you could probably say it didn't break the um the rising supporting trend line but if we have to be strict let's just say use this one and this support you could also say oh yeah Bitcoin broke the support look at this
29:25 um that's the bottom that's the support support bounc broke that support and then kept on retesting that supporting trend line retesting that supporting trend line went to 69k you could actually say that even so basically yeah
