0:13 Hey guys, what is up? Can everybody hear me loud and clear? Let me know in the chat if the audio is working properly and if uh yeah, if everybody can hear me. Is everybody there? Can everybody hear me loud and clear? and let me know if everybody's ready to start. Yo yo yo Max, I hope you are doing well. Fantastic. Thank you Mac. Good morning Austin. Hope you are doing good. Thomas, Luke, Chris, Jordan Belelfford as always in the stream. Fantastic. Arct fantastic. All right, guys. Fantastic. Glad to have you all back on board here on the stream. Uh it's an amazing day to be alive as always. Um it's beautiful,
1:00 beautiful, beautiful weather actually not here in Amsterdam. It's raining today. Um I'm not sure if you guys can see, but you can see it's very very cloudy today here in Amsterdam. Um so I'm going to not show you guys the Yeah. Well, the outside. I'm just going to show you the wall today. Um, we're going to have or give everybody a few seconds just to tune in to the stream as always and then we're going to kick it off here on the stream, guys. We're going to dive into the market, see what's going on. And next to that, we also have another beautiful fundamental presentation for you guys as always here on the stream. So, uh, before we dive in, as always, I have a link to our private mentorship here pinned in the chat. So if you are interested in learning how to
1:48 trade with myself, with Ruter, with Thomas, with the entire team, then feel free to fill in that survey and we will get back to you. And for the rest, we are just going to have an amazing day. Gold has been pumping in towards the highs um after some news coming out uh in relation to uh what has been going on between Russia and Ukraine. Russia promised to strike back at Ukraine. Ukraine fired missiles and I think destroyed up to 40 planes in Russia. I think 3,000 km across the border or something which has yeah pushed gold up higher. And obviously gold from a technical perspective. We've been talking about gold in the last few live streams is also just very very bullish from a technical perspective. Beautiful price action we've been seeing overall with some really really good trades. So
2:33 I want to discuss this gold trade with you guys. Give everybody a few more minutes to tune in before we start with the presentation and then we're going to dive in. um yeah into that. So we're going to start off with gold here. And I've talked a lot about gold on all of the live streams. So most of you will probably recognize the overall analysis that we have here. First of all, we want to identify the market structure, right? So I'm going to give you guys a quick breakdown of the strategy as always. So point number one, we're going to be looking at the market structure. Point number two is we're going to be looking at liquidity. Point number three is we're going to be looking at supply and demand. Number four is PVD. Number five is pretty much just the entry model. So what we start first of all looking at here is obviously the overall market structure. Right? So if we look at this from a market structure perspective, we
3:18 can see that this here is my swing low. I'm going to make this line nice and thick. We're going to give it number four. And that this here is my swing high. So overall the market pushed all the way up into the highs. Then it made a substantial retracement. So after let's say forming a new higher high, we had a retracement phase. The retracement phase took until around the 15th of May. I'm going to make this nice and orange. I'm not sure why it's not orange here. Nice and orange. That was the pullback phase. And now obviously we are in the impulsive phase again where we're pretty much only interested in looking for buys as we expect gold to form a new higher high somewhere over here. So impulse retracement impulse right now obviously
4:05 what we have now seen here on gold happening is that the market has and if we again focus a little bit more on the immediate price action I'm just going to remove the color here um is that the market structure first of all has been bullish now when looking at liquidity you have liquidity in different forms first of all we had equal lows positioned over here so you had this for example as a low you had a low you had a low. Yeah, the low. All of these fill to kind of like come underneath here. Then what happens? The market aggressively sells off and then recovers with a V-shaped reversal. This for me is a clear indication that there are buyers coming into the market. And for me, this is a beautiful area of liquidity of liquidation, whatever you want to call it. So there we have market structure and we have liquidity in favor of
4:50 overall buys and really showing me that the market is ready to yeah continue pushing up higher. The next step, we look at obviously supply and demand. We go up a time frame. We look at the daily time frame. I'm just going to remove the the colored zones for you. And we can see here that we have the sell before the buy. That is our daily area of demand. And the market has tapped intowards it. And that is an indication again that demand as well has been tapped. So demand market structure liquidity all of the boxes have been ticked for further upside. Premium versus discount. If we look at that as well, what can we see? We can see that the market has retraced into discount pricing. So everything underneath the 0.5 fib. Again for me a box ticked to confirm that the market is ready to push up higher. Now then when it comes to the entry model what do we look for? We look
5:36 obviously for the confirmation entry in the form of the market structure shift. So after tapping into this demand zone over here what do you wait for? You wait for the market structure to shift. So here we had the fractal low break got broken by this high. Then what happens with the Vshape reversal up? We break the fractal high. to me that that means that this here is again your sub for the buy which is demand and what happens that is pretty much your entry model to start getting into buys. Now I understand a lot of you are not looking to enter on a daily time frame uh for what is it like a one to one and a half or one to two risk-to-reward. No, you want the better risk-to-reward. So what you can then do is you can enter on the lower time frame being the 4 hour or the 1 hour. So we then dive into the 1 hour or the 4 hour first of all, excuse me. And what we see here on the 4hour time frame is that the internal trend which
6:23 we had here into towards the downside. Right? So this little internal downtrend got broken here with this high break. So that for me is again confirmation the market's ready to push up higher. Here we have the impulsive phase. Here we have the corrective phase. Here we have the impulsive phase. Here we have the corrective phase. Here we have the impulsive phase again. So I'm ultimately just looking on every single pullback to look for a potential buying opportunity. And again I understand because a lot of you are kind of like looking at the markets from let's say oh the market needs a perfect retracement because for example if you would say over here this is like impulse number one here you see a nice pullback in towards let's say 618 here you have pull or impulse number two here you don't have a retracement for example into this demand zone here you
7:08 don't have a retracement into this demand zone so a lot of people place their buy limits inside of these demand zones but if you keep on waiting for those buy limits to get hit, you're just going to miss out on so many potential opportunities. So personally, what I just do is I just wait and identify, for example, liquidity and I then say that that is potentially enough to push the market up higher. So in this particular example, what we had here was a liquidity low over here. And if you go for example into the 15minut time frame, it becomes a little bit more clear where you can very clearly see that this is kind of like the last wick over here. So this last wick gets grabbed over here and you just see such an aggressive V-shaped reversal in towards the highs. Like this low over here for me is not like a substantial low because that
7:54 liquidated these lows, right? So this for me is not a liquidity low. It's like a liquidation low in itself. Here you have equal lows with together with this low. That's why here I would be much more confident to be looking for longs. So from that moment onwards pretty much the market tends to yeah let's say consolidate a bit until it gets very interesting and we see the market really start to break out of this kind of like consolidative price action. Here we formed a 1hour demand zone which broke market structure. Here we have descending highs. So there's liquidity resting above this high over here. At least for myself there is. So above this high there's liquidity resting. So I'm looking for buys. Overall what I expect is the market to
8:41 retrace into the discount. So it retraces exactly into 0.5 retraces exactly into demand. Liquidity open on the highs on the lower time frame being the 15minut. We also had a range liquidity right underneath the lows here. So after the range liquidity pretty much gets grabbed because the first time it got grabbed was over here. We don't see any bullish confirmation. What happens? The bears continue to be in control until what happened here? We see the change of character. So the change of character got broken over here. So this is the low. This is the high. This is the first change of character high that gets broken. You see we're tracing to demand pushes up higher. Now if you want to wait for double confirmation, you obviously can. Here you had the double fractal break. Here you even had the third fractal
9:26 break. Now for myself, this is a nice time because this is around 9:00 a.m. my time to get into the markets. You can just simply buy either on top of that demand zone stop loss underneath the lows. So this is a trade that Ruter took for example on futures uh for one to three risk-to-reward and into a new higher high and obviously or at minimum kind of like these equal highs over here. So this is literally a textbook example of uh yeah how to get into a beautiful trade. So definitely no excuses if you're missing out on any uh setups or if you don't have uh any TPS because this is definitely a trade um that's just absolutely beautiful uh yeah to get into and uh I hope and I know some of you did get into it. So if you did congratulations but these are definitely the kind of setups that you want to be inside of and we've been talking about these gold buys already throughout uh the entirety of pretty
10:13 much uh yeah the third week of May uh intowards now. So some really clean price action on gold and now I see pretty much everybody has been jumping in. So we're going to dive into the presentation of today which I've prepared is how to analyze the dollar. So first of all I see um are let me ask it this way. First of all before we dive in are there any questions guys in relation to what I just talked about on gold? Then as well uh I want to ask if everybody can just post in the chat where they are tuning in from within the world. Obviously we have a lot of countries being represented here on stream. So, I'm always happy or extremely uh grateful to hear where everybody's tuning in from or very
10:58 curious uh USA, South Africa, Nigeria, Romania. Fantastic guys. That's great. Fantastic guys. But okay, so let me know if everything is working still. I think the audio should still be good. Um, okay. Fantastic. So, we have all the countries represented or represented here on the stream. Now, what we're going to do is we're going to dive in, guys, to how to analyze the US dollar. So, this is a
11:45 question obviously I get a lot. So, I'm going to kind of bring you guys through uh the month of May analyzing the dollar. Um, looking at the data that came out, looking at some fundamentals as well, and yeah, what you can pretty much uh use to your advantage when you're analyzing the US dollar, the US dollar. So, first of all, um why the dollar matters? I think that's first of all a very important uh point. So, number one, obviously, it's a global reserve currency. So over 60% of central banks hold the US dollar and it's the world's most trusted currency at least at the moment still. Um commodities are priced in US dollar. So oil, gold and other key commodities are all traded in dollars driving global demand. Well obviously the entire world uses oil for example, right? Or the entire world
12:31 purchases gold. So everything is inside or everything is traded with uh the US dollar. So therefore, it's just extremely important to always be informed about where the US dollar is trading and what the headlines are saying about the US dollar because everything that affects the US dollar will directly also have an effect on the price of oil, on the price of gold, on the price of all pretty much uh other commodities that there are um because obviously these are priced in dollars. So if the dollar suddenly starts dropping, it doesn't necessarily mean that gold is devaluating in itself or something is happening to gold. still gold becomes less valuable if the dollar becomes less valuable obviously right so that's extremely important to understand um and yeah that's why it always matters pretty much what the dollar is doing and why you should be yeah updated on it so
13:18 the dollar is part of 80 to 90% of all FX trades guys that's also very important to understand and it moves markets that's why the US dollar is actually kind of like the main focus of myself why I mainly trade the dollar only um because it's just when you know what the dollar is doing most of the times you'll also understand what the other dollar pairs are doing or what the other currency pairs are doing. I'm going to show you that in a second. Furthermore, a risk sentiment indicator. So, when fear hits, money flows into the US dollar and when risk is on the US dollar weakens. Obviously, in current market conditions, this not really been the case. Uh we can often see at the moment that when actually fear starts to hit, the markets, the money flows out of the US dollar. So, we're actually in a very unique situation where this hasn't really uh yeah happened before.
14:05 until now and um yeah it's a new situation and the markets are readjusting to that um so we're starting to see a difference uh yeah in how the market is moving and especially with the dollar furthermore it moves all majors so the dollar strength or weakness affects your USD obviously the dollar yen GPUd and also most cross pairs as well when you see suddenly that there's dollar news pretty much the entire market will tend to move um just because yeah everything is priced in dollars on a global scale trade happens in US dollars So that's why it's just always important to understand what the dollar is doing. Now again, the dollar decides the general market direction. So just to show you guys, you can spend hours and hours and hours analyzing what the New Zealand dollar is doing, what the Canadian dollar is doing, what the
14:50 Australian dollar is doing. But at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter too much because as you can see, and these are the indexes of these pairs on the futures chart. You can see that the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar which are all classified pretty much as risk uh risk on uh all tend to move pretty much in the same direction with the same pullbacks and with the same impulses. Okay. So, it's very important to understand that you can kind of like waste your time on understanding, okay, what the Australian economy is going to do, what the New Zealand economy is going to do like on an individual scale, but at the end of the day, kind of like all you need to understand is what the dollar is doing and where the dollar is pushing next and how that affects u yeah, let's say, the world itself. Uh,
15:36 and what I'm going to show you in a second will make it, I think, click for a lot of you because these are the risk on pairs, right? And on the other side, we have the risk off pairs. So, we have the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen. And traditionally speaking, also the dollar. However, that's why it's also for some maybe a little bit hard to trade current market conditions because the dollar has kind of like decoupled itself. Normally, the dollar index would be the third kind of like chart here on on your screen. um which move similar to the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen. But now you can just see only the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen move together and these kind of like move against the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. So either you can view it like this, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar will be strong or the
16:22 Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen will be strong or kind of like weak. these two pairs, so the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen, these move inverse to the New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. That's why myself and especially in current market conditions because like I just mentioned like these are the risk on pairs, these are riskoff pairs in current market conditions which are driven so heavily by the risk on and by the riskoff sentiment because again the entire market moves based on current tariff news on geopolitics on let's say yeah again the risk sentiment that's currently what is moving the markets. You want to be trading kind of like the extremes against one another. So I get a lot of questions Fabio like AUD NZD buy or sell Fabio CHF JPY like I tell the I tell these people like don't waste your
17:07 time on kind of like trading these pairs because it doesn't really in my opinion make sense because you can see the Swiss Frank and the Japanese yen they move pretty much the same and New Zealand CAD Australian dollar these also pretty much move the same based on what those indexes are showing. So, it's going to be a lot harder to make money in my opinion trading let's say these cross pairs where you kind of like want to be trading the risk on versus the risk off because these will move more inversely against each other and therefore they'll move a lot harder and faster. Now moving onwards um what I want you to understand is that all the news surrounding the dollar now at the moment everything that is good for the dollar at the moment that will push the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar up and everything
17:53 bad for the dollar will push Swiss Frank down and will push or excuse me will push uh the Swiss Frank up and the Japanese yen up. So bad news, Swiss up, yen up, and then good news for the dollar, New Zealand up, Canadian dollar up, Australian dollar up. As simple as that. Okay. Now, the drivers of the United States dollar. First of all, these are kind of like the points that I look at. Um, so what you can do is you can just use these to your advantage. You can literally write this down on a sheet on a on a piece of paper for yourself and it will help you analyze the dollar itself and form a fundamental bias. In the meantime, guys, don't forget to leave a like on the stream. highly appreciate it and just let me know or it lets me know that you guys are actually paying attention and watching and you find it interesting. Um, obviously if you don't find it
18:38 interesting, we're going to do other streams, but um, I hope everybody still finds it interesting. Let me know in the chat if you do have questions and if you do find it interesting, always good to hear. So, the drivers of the of the dollar, what we look at myself first of all is the Federal Reserve. Um, so mainly what is Jerome Powell saying? um the chair of the Federal Reserve mainly in relation to interest rates. What you want to see or what you want to or how you want to kind of like make it make sense is that higher rates mean a stronger US dollar because foreign investors will want better returns. Okay, as simple as that. So when there's a higher interest rate that means that governments, investors and everything will be investing more money into the
19:23 United States dollar. When people invest more money into the United States dollar, there's more demand for the dollar. When there is more demand for the dollar, what does it mean? It means the dollar becomes stronger because the forex market is very simply said supply and demand. Now, the US economic data that you can look at, we have inflation, we have job growth, we have uh GDP, we have retail sales. These are just a few just to keep it very simple. The Fed's main job is to control inflation. So reports like CPI which is again the consumer price index and PCE are key because high inflation will lead to rate hikes which will boost the United States dollar. So when inflation is hot, when inflation is high, what happens? It means that it will boost the United States dollar most likely. And I have an
20:08 example of this in a second that I'm going to show you guys in a second. Okay. Then when we look at strong job growth, so when NFP for example is good, this means there is a strong economy. What does it mean? When there is a strong economy, people will start spending more money, people will start making more money, which means overall that there's going to be a higher demand for products on a global scale or on a domestic scale. And where there's a higher demand for products, it means that prices will go up. Prices go up means higher inflation. Higher inflation goes up mean interest rates go up. interest rates go up means that there will be a stronger US dollar. As simple as that. Maybe it was not as simple as I explained, but I hope you guys understand what I'm trying to say. Strong GDP numbers attracts foreign
20:54 capital because if a let's say a country is strong in GDP, it's growing, right? The gross dome gross domestic product of a country is is growing. It's big. The country is attracting foreign capital. More companies are coming and investing in the United States. What happens is that the US dollar demand rises because again more people want to put their money into what? Into the United States dollar which means more demand. Then next to that strong retail sales means more spending. More spending again means higher demand. Higher demand means higher inflation. Higher inflation means interest rates go up again means a stronger US dollar. Okay. So, as simple as that, guys. And these are just the things that you need to write down for yourself. And
21:40 when you write them down, you can then keep track of the numbers that come out to this. And then literally to every single news announcement that there is, and I'm going to kind of like show you how you can do it, but every single news announcement that there is, you can kind of like keep track of what the numbers are doing. And then based on kind of like all of these very um and in Dutch we say orac it's like occurrence and what follows out of the occurrence. Uh there's a saying in English, but I'm just too too deep into this right now to kind of like think of that. Um but um it will help you kind of like understand. So what you can do is like in Excel keep track or on a piece of paper keep track of like all of the major news announcements that come out. So NFP, CPI, GDP, retail sales, surveys, whatever. And then you can write down kind of like okay strong job growth. So
22:28 right let's say NFP numbers come out good. This is the occurrence. And then what follows from that occurrence is that there's going to be like a line. It means strong economy. Boom. More demand. Boom. Higher inflation. Boom. Interest rates up. Boom. Um um boost of the United States dollar. So pretty much like this is how you can kind of like all break it down for yourself and make it make really a lot of sense. Now, furthermore, the risk sentiment. Um obviously this is what everybody kind of like knows. who talked about this a lot in all of the previous streams as well. The United States has stable institutions like Black Rockck, right? All the big big big institutions are based in the United States. They have deep capital markets and they have global trust. At least it used to have
23:14 this, right? because at the moment there's not a lot of global trust in the United States because people hate the fact that the United States is so extremely uncertain and that there's not a lot of certainty surrounding the US dollar and that is why capital at the moment within let's say these uncertain times where there's a lot of tariffs and stuff um people are moving their money out of the dollar and into for example the euro the Swiss Frank or the Japanese yen now during uncertainty investors will prefer the Swiss Frank the Japanese yen and now the euro and obviously as well gold instead of the United States dollar. Now, last of all, what I look at is geopolitical stability. Russia, Ukraine. Well, Russia, Ukraine. What happens? Russia has just announced that it's going to bomb Ukraine because Ukraine bombed 40 planes of Russia. Then what happens? Boom. Gold starts to fly
23:59 as we've seen. Middle East, what happens? Israel attacks Iran or Israel attacks Palestine or the other way around. Doesn't really matter. This will obviously also push up gold, will push up the Swiss Frank, will push up the Japanese yen. Then obviously the trade wars and the tariffs and then the situation with Taiwan. These are kind of like the main topics that you can keep an eye on if you want to understand what is happening in relationship to geopolitical stability and what is going on within the Middle East itself. Okay. Um and I see now that my camera is kind of like on the last uh point. Um but here you have uh have it and you can press pause on it as well. Now we're going to go into the last and most interesting slides for you guys as well. So just stay here with me and then we're going to dive into the charts as well.
24:46 Again, looking here at the economic indicators, obviously we have NFP. So just to give you guys an idea, I gathered the data from May on kind of like some of the major uh economic numbers. So here for May 2nd, what you can see is that NFP came out good, came out positive, higher than expected uh for the uh US dollar. Then what happens? we see the US dollar between the 3rd and the 12th of May start to fly. Right? So on the 2nd of May that was this big green candle over here. What happens? US dollar starts to push up. However, we left behind some lows. We come and grab those lows and then from there the market starts to push for around the next two weeks. Okay. So for around two weeks the market obviously pushed for several reasons, not just uh NFP but it did push after that NFP announcement
25:33 further in towards the highs and those good numbers yeah supported the US dollar. However, then what you need to see now and this is interesting to see is that um we had CPI, we had PPI and we had retail sales come out. So inflation came out lower than expected over here. So we had um over here we had core CPI come in lower than expected. CPI come lower than expected. CPI yearonear come lower than expected. And again remember guys when inflation is low this is not very good for a currency because then what happens is that people expect lower interest rates when people expect lower interest rates what happens and let's say a currency becomes less attractive because you're going to get less return for your money right so people start getting their money out of the US dollar
26:19 again so this first of all happened on the 13th of May so of of last month and then next to that on the third on on the first day so on the 15th of May we also had core PPI so that's is producer pricing inflation. We had um those come in worse than expected and then what happened the US dollar literally on the day itself on the 13th of May. So first of all on the 13th of May bad inflation numbers came out we started pushing down lower then again literally on the 15th of May which is when the market started consolidating which was that Thursday. Um and again bad numbers came out. The market grabbed the high one more time, grabbed some more liquidity and then yeah just continued this overall trend in towards the end of May in towards the 26th of May. Now this is where it's
27:05 getting interesting because then what happened is that towards the end of May so the 28th the 29th tariffs became unlawful. So Trump tariffs ruled illegal by the federal judicial panel. So the US court of international trade said the president had overstepped his authority in imposing his caporical tariffs globally as well as levies on Canada and Mexico and then what happens the market again jumps in towards the highs. Very interesting to understand again because this pushed the market up higher. However then and I haven't added that screenshot in here. You can see literally the day after the market starts dumping again. And this was because again another judge said no, there's going to be more time for Trump
27:52 and he can in a different way still impose those tariffs and that eventually push the market again down lower. So you see that these real world events, these real world numbers that come out literally move the market from point A to point B. Um and by keeping track of these numbers and then using that in combination with the overall technical analysis that we use um it makes trading so much more uh so much more fun and interesting. So what I do is I for example this is let's say the CPI of Japan I keep track of all of the CPI numbers and look at the overall change. So what you can do is for literally for every single month see aha like inflation for example has been on the rise overall. Um, so the overall trend is up. Then you can translate this into your overall decisions. And it's kind of like what I was mentioning earlier in
28:39 this presentation. You can translate this into decisions uh and uh into how you kind of like see this back on the charts. But I think this is extremely interesting to see and to understand um because it really helps you overall yeah gain an understanding and by let's say just gathering this data into could just be a Google doc or whatever or an Excel spreadsheet um and adding in the screenshots of of the charts and looking back on any given month and looking how the data affected the overall market and your positions. it will give you and provide you with a better understanding uh yeah for future yeah your decisions that you make and it's helped me definitely also improve my decision- making um within the markets overall. Okay guys, so thank you very much uh yeah for paying attention
29:25 everyone. Appreciate you watching this presentation. Sadly that you're not here with me in a room. Um yeah to give a big applause obviously uh because I hope all of you enjoyed watching this. If you did make sure to leave a like here on the stream and now let's dive back into the charts. And again don't just send whatever currency you want me to look at. Not in the mood for that today. would love to just hear you guys ask some good questions about the charts uh and then we can yeah look at um yeah those specific pairs. So don't just say Euro USD but actually mention something about EuroUSD and say what your thoughts are um and um I'll be u helping you guys out. Yeah, it's downloadable. I'll be sharing it inside Discord, guys. Um
30:11 yeah, how about Euro and GBP? Um are they independent? Indeed, Euro and the pound move a little bit differently. Um, because Euro is the second largest economy. So, the euro is definitely also an economy where I preferably look at it from a perspective where we just focus mainly on the data. So, definitely like inflation and everything that I just mentioned. Um, that's mainly what moved the euro. But at this point in time, it's a little bit easier to to analyze the euro because the euro has kind of like um yeah, let's say um um has made way or the dollar has made way for the euro. So the euro has taken the place of the dollar itself and then the pound is also just a pair that you just analyze purely on the data. And Kashif, thank you for spamming the chat. You are obviously never going to be able to ask
30:57 a question anymore in your life. Ciao. Uh what are the X handles? Yeah, so the X handles or the Twitter handles uh which I recommend um for you guys to follow. I'll be sharing these inside Discord, guys. There will be a list inside Discord. So, if you're not inside Discord yet, make sure to to join. Um, the link can be found uh in the description of this video gold tank dot. What do you want to say with that, Kav? Okay guys, do you think your USD will create a higher high? But obviously um as long as market structure is respected uh at the moment the daily
31:42 fractal is bullish, the 4hour fractal is bullish, it should push up higher. Um it's obviously consolidating uh since uh what is it since Wednesday. So since yesterday evening uh it's been moving within a range but um yeah for now I mean the 4hour fractal is bullish. So it makes sense uh to continue pushing up higher. Um but overall uh let's see what happens if we break this low again. Um it will also be dependent on what the dollar does. Uh because the dollar at the moment guys here based on what you can see on the 4hour is that it's very indecisive. What I'm overall waiting for is to see if we can um break through this daily supply zone. That is the most important part. We need to break through that daily supply zone because if we can break this daily supply zone then some
32:30 more upside would definitely be possible. Um as long as this high is respected then uh yeah it seems like your USD will push up higher and the dollar will push down lower. Uh why the US dollar is flying now? The unemployment claims for the US dollar were bad. Let me quickly check. U those unemployment numbers come out every single um what is it? Every single uh come out every single Thursday. So it's not important to look at. Uh so on forex factory guys you will be able to see here uh this was released 16 minutes ago. Um so presidenti Trump hold Chinese state media. So chi Trump hold phone talks at
33:17 Trump's request. So yeah, this is good news for crypto uh and this is good for the dollar at the moment obviously uh which is uh or what is yeah well it's what caused a spike on the dollar just now um and the reason why it pushed and furthermore the European Central Bank I don't think you guys can see my screen ah you cannot or you can see my screen I'm not sure if you can oh no you can great um so you can see that and then furthermore Uh here at the European Central Banks press president Lagard most core inflation figures suggest inflation will stabilize at target. Labor costs are gradually moderating
34:07 uh nothing really too interesting from this yet. We'll have to look at the rest what she says. inflation outlook more uncertain than usual. Doesn't really add anything to the overall information. Okay. Um but yeah, well that's at least the reason why um yeah, the dollar was flying. So anything in relation to that should push us up higher. So now if we look at ADCHF, boom. You see nice push up again. Why? Because there was a Trump talk with the president of China. So that obviously pushes the Swiss Frank down. So now if you look at Swiss futures, you see a massive spike down as soon as it was announced that the call was made, which pushes Aussie Swiss up,
34:53 which pushes pushes GBP Swiss up, which pushes USD Swiss shortly up, which pushes NDCHF up. Look at NDCHF going, man. Interesting. Um, so yeah, this has pushed it up higher. Fabby, do you trade news events not necessarily just on on the lower time frame? Like on the higher time frame, I hold for news. Yeah. So, if your USD now kind of starts to change market structure, um that would be good for a short. But yeah, you can see it's still pushing up higher. It kind of pushed into that 1 hour order block over here, which was still fresh. Um but it needs to change
35:39 structure from here. Uh and as you can see the 15-minut time frame at the moment is still being respected and yeah order flow is still holding. So shorts definitely not on the table just yet. Um having a look at gold. So gold obviously pushes down in times where let's say uh risk on comes into the equation. So everything in relation to what was just announced between Trump andQi um pushes gold lower because that adds to the overall risk on sentiment. Uh but at the same time um let's see where did it push down from um yeah pushes down from the imbalance. So this is obviously a 50% body candle
36:25 which you can identify as potential supply zone and that's where the market pushes down from. But yeah, for now it's in liquidity or in demand, excuse me. Uh, so it's back inside of demand. Um, yeah, could still push a little lower. Wouldn't want to get into longs over here. Uh, let's wait and see. Maybe even see it push down below over here. Just let it run for now. Now is not the right time to be in gold. These are not kind of like the setups that you really want to be in for here. When it accumulates and manipulates, that's the perfect perfect setup. like the accumulation phase where we have this, then the manipulation phase where we have this and then the distribution phase we have this. These are the kind of setups. Now this is after. So you just want to not be in this
37:11 anymore. Now we need to wait for this again. Uh Putin announced he will no longer negotiate with the Ukrainian government. Not very uh not very relevant. Nothing to really look at at the moment. Fabio, how do we trade a pair which breaks the fractal high and the low at the same time? We don't look at the pair. Very simply said. Um and again guys I get a lot of questions still um to
37:57 learn the strategy itself. If you are serious about learning the strategy itself, you can either fill in this form or you which I just sent in the chat or you can open a ticket inside Discord uh and I'll be answering questions there later in the afternoon to help out. How does one know when the news is relevant? Well, you just need to really kind of like be in the markets. The only way to learn and understand if news is relevant for your positions is by being in positions and then experiencing what the news does to your positions over time. Like it's it's kind of like impossible to say.
38:45 Um, yeah. So, I just got a Bloomberg notification. Donald Trump and C Jinping spoke Thursday, according to Chinese state media, marking their first known formal contact since Trump took office. So, this is actually a pretty big thing, actually. Um, a very big thing. Yeah, market is extremely volatile. Let's see how the market reacts, guys, because at the moment, wow, Euro pushing up like big time, man.
39:35 So 50-minute order flow holding at the moment pushing the market up higher. So yeah now 4hour fractal has been yeah let's say broken a new high once again daily fractal still bullish there's no sign of it slowing down just yet 4-hour fractal bullish at the moment 15-minute orderflow holding as well. So yeah, as long as all of these fractals hold only weighs up. So yeah, Euro or Aussie dollar is finally finally going to hit that high, that liquidity high which we've been talking about. The New Zealand dollar
40:22 against the US dollar also breaking a new daily fractal high again which we discussed this morning in the market outlook here on the channel and gold just leave it for what it is. I passed my funded next competition just from watching your YouTube videos. Thanks Fabio. Thank you for watching man. So yeah guys, we need some developments. Um yeah, USD Swiss also looking for longs, man. Just a lot of news uh news manipulation here on the open today. Um I would still be looking for some more longs from this uh area of support on
41:08 USD Swiss. Okay guys, well, thanks everyone for watching. Um, yeah, we'll be dropping some updates inside Discord tomorrow. We're going to go live on Discord as well. So, make sure to be inside Discord. We're going to go live there. So, make sure to tune in. How can I get your indicators that you're using? I'll be dropping the indicator uh inside Discord announcements. Uh, I'm working with Rooker to yeah, make it public. So, stay tuned for that. Thanks guys for watching. Uh, appreciate you being here on stream. Don't forget to leave a like on the stream before you leave. We only have 208 likes. Um, I really don't think that's enough. I think we should get at least 300 if we want to keep on streaming. Um, yeah, we need at least
41:54 300 likes. And yeah, guys, I think you guys enjoyed it today. So, thank you for being here. Appreciate you taking the time to come on and yeah, listen to what I had to say about the markets. And yeah, look forward to speaking to you guys inside Discord. We'll drop the X handles there as well um when I have time. And uh, yeah, thanks guys for joining. Speak soon and ciao.
